THE WILL ROGERS PHENOMENON
ˉx=x1+x2+…+xnn=1nn∑i=1xi.
It takes an equal contribution of 1n from each data point and adds them all together.
Sometimes, however, this average may not be a good measure to summarize data. First, the arithmetic mean is sensitive to outliers. For example, in the data set
{1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,100}
the average is 110(109)=10.9. However, this is clearly not representative of the data, as most of the numbers are 1 and the 100 appears to be an anomaly.
Our second example involves two groups. Suppose that in a certain math class the passing grade is 50, and that the 10 students in class have grades 25,30,35,35,45,55,55,60,75,80. There are five students who passed, and their average is 15(55+55+60+75+80)=65. Those who weren't as fortunate, however, have average 15(25+30+35+35+45)=34.
What happens if the passing grade is moved to 60? Obviously, there will only be three of them who would pass. The averages, however, tell an interesting story. The average of those who will pass becomes 13(60+75+80)≈71.66 and of those who won't becomes 40. We summarize this in the table
Averages | Pass | Didn't Pass |
Passing Grade 50 | 65 | 34 |
Passing Grade 60 | 71.66 | 40 |
Just by changing the passing mark, the averages of both groups actually increased! Even though we did not actually help either group, the averages seem to tell us that both groups improved.By increasing the passing grade, we moved the two students who got 55 to the group that did not pass. Of course, 55 is already greater than the grades those who did not pass, and by including them in that group, the average increases. On the other hand, the two who got 55 have grades lower than the others who did pass, and by moving them to the other group, the average of the remaining also rises.
While this may look like a trivial example, there are real-world concerns where this could fool people. For example, instead of grades, imagine that the numbers above represents the income of 10 people. Just by redefining what it means to be "rich" (the "passing" grade), one could falsely say that both the "rich" and "poor" experienced a rise in average incomes, even though no change actually happened.
Another application is in medicine [1], [2], specifically, stage migration. In stage migration, improved detection of diseases moves people from one group into another (healthy and sick). Just like in the above example, the movement of people from one category to another can cause averages to rise (say, for example, average lifespan). The principle is still the same. Of course, we are not arguing against improved detection methods, but rather that we be wary in looking at just averages and not understanding what took place.
This phenomenon is called the Will Rogers phenomenon. The origin of its name is quite interesting. The comedian Will Rogers is said to have joked: "When the Okies left Oklahoma and moved to California, they raised the average intelligence level in both states" [3].
ABOUT THE AUTHOR:
Emerson Escolar is a Lecturer at the Ateneo de Manila University. He is currently taking his M.S. in Mathematics at the same university.
REFERENCES:
[1] Feinstein AR, Sosin DM, Wells CK (June 1985). "The Will Rogers phenomenon. Stage migration and new diagnostic techniques as a source of misleading statistics for survival in cancer". The New England Journal of Medicine 312 (25): 1604-8.
[2] Sormani, M. P.; Tintorè, M.; Rovaris, M.; Rovira, A.; Vidal, X.; Bruzzi, P.; Filippi, M.; Montalban, X. (2008). "Will Rogers phenomenon in multiple sclerosis". Annals of Neurology 64 (4): 428-433.
[3] Wikipedia Contributors. "Will Rogers phenomenon". Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Will_Rogers_phenomenon. (Accessed 6 Dec. 2011).
[2] Sormani, M. P.; Tintorè, M.; Rovaris, M.; Rovira, A.; Vidal, X.; Bruzzi, P.; Filippi, M.; Montalban, X. (2008). "Will Rogers phenomenon in multiple sclerosis". Annals of Neurology 64 (4): 428-433.
[3] Wikipedia Contributors. "Will Rogers phenomenon". Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Will_Rogers_phenomenon. (Accessed 6 Dec. 2011).
OLYMPIAD CORNER
from the 57th Belarusian Mathematical Olympiad
Problem: Prove that the inequality 1x1+x1x2+x1x2x3+x1x2x3x4+⋯+x1x2…xnxn+1≥4(1−x1…xn+1) holds for all positive numbers x1,…,xn+1.
We note that for all positive numbers a and b, we have
Hence the inequalities 1x1≤4(1−x1) and x1x2…xkxk+1≥4(x1x2⋯xk−x1x2…xkxk+1) holds for any k=1,...,n. Therefore,
Solution:
We note that for all positive numbers a and b, we have
(2b−1)2≥01≥4b(1−b)1b≥4(1−b)ab≥4(a−ab)
Hence the inequalities 1x1≤4(1−x1) and x1x2…xkxk+1≥4(x1x2⋯xk−x1x2…xkxk+1) holds for any k=1,...,n. Therefore,
1x1+x1x2+x1x2x3+⋯+x1x2…xnxn+1≥4(1−x1)+4(x1−x1x2)+⋯+4(x1…xn−x1…xnxn+1)=4(1−x1…xn+1)
as required.
PROBLEMS
- Let a,b,c be positive real numbers with abc=8. Prove that a−2a+1+b−2b+1+c−2c+1≤0.
- Let {x}=x−⌊x⌋ denote the fractional part of x. Prove that for every natural number n, n2∑j=1{√j}≤n2−12.
- Show that there are infinitely many ordered integral pairs (a,b) such that a3+b3a−b is a perfect square.
We welcome readers to submit solutions to the problems posed below for
publication consideration. Solutions must be preceded by the solver's
name, school affiliation and year level. The deadline for submission is
January 14, 2012.
SOLUTIONS
(for November 26, 2011)
- Evaluate 1+12+22+12+13+23+33+23+13+…+1n+2n+…+nn+n−1n+…+1n.(Taken from Principles and Techniques in Combinatorics by Chong and Meng)(solved by Ferdinand John S. Briones [MSHS], Emman Joshua B. Busto [PSHS - Main], Dianne Garcia [AA], Albert Jason Z. Olaya [PSHS - Main] and Gerald M. Pascua [PSHS - Main])SOLUTION:Note that for every positive integer k we have 1k+2k+…+kk+k−1k+…1k=2(k−1)k2+kk=k, Thus the sum reduces to 1+2+…+n=n(n−1)2.
- ABCD is a square, E and F are the midpoints of the sides AB and BC respectively. If M is the point of intersection of CE and DF, prove that AM = AD. (Taken from Lecture Notes on Mathematical Olympiad Courses by Xu Jiagu)(solved by Ferdinand John S. Briones [MSHS] and Emman Joshua B. Busto [PSHS - Main])SOLUTION:We have the following figureSince BE=CF and BC=CD, we have ΔDFC≅ΔCEB, meaning ∠CDF=∠BCE and thus CE⊥DF.Extend CE to intersect the extension of DA at some point N.We now have AE=BE and ∠NEA=∠BEC, which means ΔAEN≅ΔBEC and hence AN=BC=AD, implying that AM is the median of ND, which is the hypotenuse of ΔNMD, giving us AM=AN=AD.
- If A,B and C are the measurements of the angles in each of the vertices of the triangle ABC, show that cosA+cosB+cosC≤32.(Taken from Inequalities by Manfrino, Ortega, and Delgado)
(solved by Ferdinand John S. Briones [MSHS])SOLUTION:Note that a(b2+c2−a2)+b(c2+a2−b2)+c(a2+b2−c2)=(b+c−a)(c+a−b)(a+b−c)+2abc thus we have cosA+cosB+cosC=b2+c2−a22bc+c2+a2−b22ac+a2+b2−c22ab=(b+c−a)(c+a−b)(a+b−c)2abc+1 where (b+c−a)(c+a−b)(a+b−c)≤abc, hence the result.